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Red287
19070.9
172139.8
568783.0
Blue251
13366.7
83959.0
632872.3
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions222215160180200240260280287251

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+46Teleop
+36Endgame
+36Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
3Leave3
11Coral scored#7
55Coral points34
58Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +25
30Coral scored#38
109Coral points136
7Processor algae#3
13Net algae#6
42Processor points18
52Net points24
94Algae points42
203Total teleop178
Reef
11L4#14
15L3#15
10L2#11
5L1 · trough#5
61Game pieces#54
BargeBlue +10
26Cage & park36
26Total endgame36
Penalties & totalRed +36
0Foul points0
287Total score251

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
83.01.4
81.683.0
Auto23.6
Teleop52.8
End6.6
red by 10.7
72.30.5
71.872.3
Auto18.3
Teleop46.1
End7.9
Second
190
#3
70.91.4
69.570.9
Auto19.7
Teleop44.2
End7.0
red by 4.2
133
#21
66.70.5
66.266.7
Auto15.8
Teleop40.1
End10.7
Third
1721
#11
39.81.4
38.439.8
Auto5.3
Teleop26.4
End8.2
blue by 19.2
839
#32
59.00.5
58.559.0
Auto8.5
Teleop41.4
End9.1