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Red178
31932.4
944326.7
581373.0
Blue141
264851.9
172131.5
632455.7
42%Model gave it58%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions171183050100150200250300178141

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+5Auto
+37Teleop
+39Endgame
+37Fouls
AutonomousRed +5
9Leave3
4Coral scored#4
21Coral points22
30Total auto25
TeleoperatedRed +32
24Coral scored#23
88Coral points82
3Processor algae#2
9Net algae#4
18Processor points12
36Net points16
54Algae points28
142Total teleop110
Reef
7L4#10
10L3#10
7L2#4
4L1 · trough#3
40Game pieces#33
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +37
0Foul points2
178Total score141

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
73.00.9
73.174.0
Auto16.4
Teleop48.3
End8.3
red by 17.3
6324
#22
55.72.4
61.459.0
Auto14.0
Teleop37.3
End4.4
Second
319
#5
32.40.9
34.735.6
Auto6.6
Teleop20.9
End4.9
blue by 19.5
2648
#16
51.92.4
54.452.0
Auto9.1
Teleop39.2
End3.5
Third
9443
#18
26.70.9
29.730.6
Auto4.2
Teleop16.2
End6.4
blue by 4.8
1721
#11
31.52.4
30.327.9
Auto4.3
Teleop20.4
End6.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
81%Auto oddsEarned89%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
61%Coral oddsEarned28%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
94%Barge oddsMissed78%Barge oddsMissed