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Red197
16661.5
50113.3
176881.8
Blue146
13155.6
14744.2
8869.4
78%Model gave it22%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions17113650100150200250197146

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
+39Teleop
+51Endgame
+51Fouls
Autonomouslevel
6Leave0
6Coral scored#7
31Coral points37
37Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +39
21Coral scored#16
76Coral points57
4Processor algae#2
7Net algae#5
24Processor points12
28Net points20
52Algae points32
128Total teleop89
Reef
13L4#10
4L3#5
6L2#6
4L1 · trough#2
38Game pieces#30
BargeRed +12
26Cage & park14
26Total endgame14
Penalties & totalRed +51
6Foul points6
197Total score146

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
81.80.8
81.081.8
Auto23.6
Teleop47.1
End11.1
red by 12.4
88
#10
69.40.3
69.269.4
Auto14.8
Teleop44.8
End9.8
Second
166
#3
61.50.8
60.761.5
Auto12.9
Teleop39.3
End9.3
red by 5.9
131
#7
55.60.3
55.455.6
Auto11.0
Teleop40.3
End4.3
Third
501
#23
13.30.8
12.513.3
Auto3.7
Teleop7.5
End2.2
red by 9.1
1474
#29
4.20.3
3.94.2
Auto-0.0
Teleop4.3
End-0.1