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Red139
287751.5
15129.3
490955.3
Blue63
176841.6
172113.0
964438.9
82%Model gave it18%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions129955015020013963

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+24Auto
+60Teleop
+74Endgame
+76Fouls
AutonomousRed +24
6Leave3
6Coral scored#2
31Coral points10
37Total auto13
TeleoperatedRed +36
18Coral scored#8
64Coral points30
2Processor algae#1
2Net algae#3
12Processor points6
8Net points12
20Algae points18
84Total teleop48
Reef
9L4#4
6L3#3
6L2#2
3L1 · trough#1
28Game pieces#14
BargeRed +14
16Cage & park2
16Total endgame2
Penalties & totalRed +76
2Foul points0
139Total score63

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
55.30.5
54.354.8
Auto13.9
Teleop36.6
End4.8
red by 13.7
1768
#10
41.60.6
40.940.3
Auto5.4
Teleop33.2
End3.0
Second
51.50.5
50.551.0
Auto15.0
Teleop31.8
End4.7
red by 12.6
38.90.6
38.337.6
Auto4.4
Teleop33.4
End1.2
Third
1512
#24
9.30.5
8.28.8
Auto4.0
Teleop1.7
End3.5
blue by 3.8
1721
#19
13.00.6
12.311.7
Auto2.0
Teleop9.6
End1.4