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Red58
870710.8
910016.3
566617.9
Blue65
1017010.6
249525.0
562411.6
62%Model gave it38%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions524102060801001205865

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+21
Endgame+19
Fouls+7
AutonomousBlue +3
6Leave9
0Coral scored#0
0Coral points0
6Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +18
6Coral scored#9
20Coral points34
1Processor algae#1
2Net algae#3
6Processor points6
8Net points12
14Algae points18
34Total teleop52
Reef
1L4#3
3L3#2
1L2#3
1L1 · trough#1
9Game pieces#13
BargeRed +2
4Cage & park2
4Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +7
14Foul points2
58Total score65

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5666
#11
17.90.5
15.014.5
Auto3.4
Teleop13.0
End1.5
blue by 7.1
2495
#14
25.02.1
26.028.1
Auto3.9
Teleop20.7
End0.4
Second
9100
#25
16.30.5
18.317.8
Auto2.9
Teleop10.5
End2.8
red by 4.7
5624
#17
11.61.3
3.14.4
Auto2.0
Teleop9.1
End0.5
Third
8707
#26
10.80.5
9.38.8
Auto1.5
Teleop7.5
End1.8
red by 0.2
10.61.3
9.210.4
Auto3.6
Teleop5.0
End2.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
14%Auto oddsMissed14%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
35%Barge oddsMissed25%Barge oddsMissed