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Red89
48434.7
20420.6
941615.1
Blue102
741426.6
711019.2
434237.2
17%Model gave it83%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions608920408010012014016089102

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+14
Teleop+15
Endgame+13
Fouls+13
AutonomousBlue +14
3Leave9
1Coral scored#3
6Coral points14
9Total auto23
TeleoperatedBlue +1
12Coral scored#16
44Coral points59
2Processor algae#1
5Net algae#3
12Processor points6
20Net points12
32Algae points18
76Total teleop77
Reef
3L4#8
5L3#4
2L2#4
3L1 · trough#3
20Game pieces#23
BargeRed +2
4Cage & park2
4Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +13
0Foul points0
89Total score102

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
484
#12
34.71.3
30.031.3
Auto5.6
Teleop27.5
End1.6
blue by 2.5
4342
#11
37.20.8
34.935.7
Auto8.5
Teleop27.9
End0.8
Second
204
#27
20.61.3
21.022.3
Auto4.3
Teleop14.2
End2.1
blue by 6.0
26.60.8
23.324.1
Auto5.5
Teleop18.7
End2.5
Third
9416
#24
15.11.3
9.310.6
Auto3.7
Teleop9.5
End1.9
blue by 4.1
7110
#17
19.20.8
20.921.7
Auto4.6
Teleop12.9
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
80%Auto oddsMissed70%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
26%Barge oddsMissed30%Barge oddsMissed