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Red72
915115.2
242951.8
1018321.5
Blue70
940037.6
1018614.7
682513.2
82%Model gave it18%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions926502040801001201407270

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+6Auto
Teleop+2
+8Endgame
+2Fouls
AutonomousRed +6
6Leave0
3Coral scored#3
13Coral points13
19Total auto13
TeleoperatedBlue +8
7Coral scored#9
25Coral points33
1Processor algae#1
2Net algae#2
6Processor points6
8Net points8
14Algae points14
39Total teleop47
Reef
5L4#5
2L3#2
2L2#2
1L1 · trough#3
13Game pieces#15
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +2
0Foul points6
72Total score70

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
51.80.5
42.742.1
Auto10.7
Teleop35.1
End6.0
red by 14.3
9400
#15
37.60.1
32.532.6
Auto5.2
Teleop31.7
End0.7
Second
21.50.8
16.215.4
Auto4.3
Teleop9.1
End8.1
red by 6.8
14.70.2
14.514.7
Auto4.2
Teleop9.1
End1.4
Third
9151
#28
15.20.8
20.319.5
Auto5.2
Teleop7.1
End2.9
red by 2.0
6825
#37
13.20.2
12.312.5
Auto3.6
Teleop5.9
End3.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
58%Auto oddsEarned29%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
56%Barge oddsEarned38%Barge oddsMissed