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Red124
25013.9
461161.1
130823.2
Blue125
201031.2
222845.8
395122.0
36%Model gave it64%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions92103406080120140160124125

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
+17Teleop
+5Endgame
Fouls+1
AutonomousBlue +7
0Leave3
5Coral scored#5
23Coral points27
23Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +24
15Coral scored#15
55Coral points55
3Processor algae#1
6Net algae#3
18Processor points6
24Net points12
42Algae points18
97Total teleop73
Reef
7L4#9
5L3#6
5L2#2
3L1 · trough#3
29Game pieces#24
BargeBlue +12
4Cage & park16
4Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +1
0Foul points6
124Total score125

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
61.13.0
41.844.7
Auto15.6
Teleop39.8
End5.7
red by 15.3
45.81.8
38.940.6
Auto12.8
Teleop26.4
End6.6
Second
1308
#45
23.23.0
19.522.4
Auto4.0
Teleop18.1
End1.1
blue by 8.0
2010
#16
31.21.8
26.728.5
Auto6.9
Teleop21.8
End2.5
Third
250
#52
13.93.0
18.821.8
Auto4.0
Teleop8.6
End1.4
blue by 8.1
3951
#22
22.01.8
21.122.8
Auto4.8
Teleop12.2
End5.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
43%Auto oddsEarned70%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
9%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
19%Barge oddsMissed59%Barge oddsEarned