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Red104
642317.9
775919.2
287242.2
Blue76
188027.9
446723.9
188430.0
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7472020406010012014016010476

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+20Teleop
+36Endgame
+28Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
6Leave3
3Coral scored#1
17Coral points6
23Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +6
13Coral scored#11
45Coral points41
2Processor algae#1
2Net algae#3
12Processor points6
8Net points12
20Algae points18
65Total teleop59
Reef
5L4#5
4L3#3
4L2#2
3L1 · trough#2
20Game pieces#16
BargeRed +16
16Cage & park0
16Total endgame0
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +28
0Foul points8
104Total score76

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
42.23.9
36.440.3
Auto10.4
Teleop28.5
End3.3
red by 12.2
1884
#31
30.00.0
27.327.3
Auto3.8
Teleop25.9
End0.3
Second
7759
#27
19.23.9
14.718.6
Auto5.2
Teleop11.5
End2.6
blue by 8.6
1880
#14
27.90.0
16.716.8
Auto6.3
Teleop19.7
End1.8
Third
17.93.9
17.621.6
Auto4.5
Teleop11.2
End2.2
blue by 6.0
4467
#17
23.90.0
23.823.8
Auto5.2
Teleop14.8
End3.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
46%Auto oddsEarned87%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed9%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
40%Barge oddsEarned14%Barge oddsMissed