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Red128
188027.9
179660.1
28727.8
Blue61
64636.0
260127.1
362420.9
93%Model gave it7%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1066420408012014016012861

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+28Auto
+55Teleop
+67Endgame
+67Fouls
AutonomousRed +28
3Leave6
7Coral scored#1
34Coral points3
37Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +27
15Coral scored#12
53Coral points42
1Processor algae#1
4Net algae#0
6Processor points6
16Net points0
22Algae points6
75Total teleop48
Reef
7L4#6
7L3#3
4L2#2
4L1 · trough#2
27Game pieces#14
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +67
0Foul points0
128Total score61

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
60.13.2
48.651.8
Auto17.1
Teleop36.6
End6.4
red by 33.0
2601
#25
27.10.5
30.129.6
Auto4.8
Teleop19.5
End2.8
Second
1880
#14
27.93.2
20.924.1
Auto6.3
Teleop19.7
End1.8
red by 6.9
3624
#12
20.90.5
25.424.9
Auto3.5
Teleop16.3
End1.1
Third
287
#10
27.83.2
24.928.1
Auto7.4
Teleop17.3
End3.1
red by 21.7
6463
#48
6.00.5
7.16.6
Auto0.1
Teleop5.9
End0.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
84%Auto oddsEarned26%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
18%Coral oddsMissed8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
29%Barge oddsEarned39%Barge oddsMissed