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Red88
130830.9
499137.3
716529.2
Blue74
839327.8
239953.2
871812.3
61%Model gave it39%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions103920501508874

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+22Teleop
+16Endgame
+14Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
3Leave6
2Coral scored#1
9Coral points3
12Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +19
16Coral scored#10
56Coral points37
2Processor algae#2
2Net algae#2
12Processor points12
8Net points8
20Algae points20
76Total teleop57
Reef
4L4#5
7L3#2
4L2#2
3L1 · trough#2
22Game pieces#15
BargeBlue +6
0Cage & park6
0Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +14
0Foul points2
88Total score74

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4991
#12
37.30.1
28.428.3
Auto8.1
Teleop28.0
End1.2
blue by 15.9
2399
#11
53.20.7
39.038.3
Auto9.9
Teleop35.4
End7.9
Second
1308
#17
30.90.1
23.022.9
Auto5.2
Teleop24.3
End1.4
red by 3.2
8393
#41
27.80.8
23.322.5
Auto6.2
Teleop20.6
End1.0
Third
7165
#26
29.20.1
28.828.7
Auto4.4
Teleop23.8
End1.0
red by 16.9
8718
#55
12.31.1
11.910.8
Auto2.3
Teleop8.3
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
73%Auto oddsEarned49%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
21%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
24%Barge oddsMissed30%Barge oddsMissed