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Red129
1001125.1
414570.7
Blue144
962219.4
103838.8
178765.7
41%Model gave it59%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions126145050100200250300350129144

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+24Auto
Teleop+13
Endgame+33
Fouls+15
AutonomousRed +24
9Leave3
4Coral scored#1
21Coral points3
30Total auto6
TeleoperatedBlue +37
11Coral scored#22
41Coral points78
2Processor algae#2
6Net algae#6
12Processor points12
24Net points24
36Algae points36
77Total teleop114
Reef
4L4#12
4L3#4
5L2#4
2L1 · trough#3
23Game pieces#31
BargeBlue +20
4Cage & park24
4Total endgame24
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +15
18Foul points0
129Total score144

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
70.70.5
68.167.6
Auto18.1
Teleop46.0
End6.7
red by 5.0
65.70.5
63.564.0
Auto12.6
Teleop41.7
End11.5
Second
25.10.5
25.324.8
Auto6.0
Teleop18.4
End0.7
blue by 13.6
38.80.5
40.541.0
Auto5.1
Teleop30.3
End3.4
Third
7.90.5
14.513.9
Auto4.1
Teleop2.2
End1.6
blue by 11.5
9622
#26
19.40.5
21.121.6
Auto1.6
Teleop14.8
End3.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
89%Auto oddsEarned91%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
28%Coral oddsMissed8%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
60%Barge oddsEarned71%Barge oddsEarned