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Red143
131049.7
588548.5
491767.4
Blue91
85432.7
375627.3
18859.8
85%Model gave it15%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1681235010015020025014391

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+49Auto
+46Teleop
+44Endgame
+52Fouls
AutonomousRed +49
9Leave9
10Coral scored#0
49Coral points0
58Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +3
11Coral scored#11
39Coral points38
1Processor algae#1
2Net algae#3
6Processor points6
8Net points12
14Algae points18
53Total teleop56
Reef
8L4#3
5L3#5
4L2#2
4L1 · trough#1
24Game pieces#15
BargeBlue +2
24Cage & park26
24Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +52
8Foul points0
143Total score91

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4917
#10
67.41.0
61.760.7
Auto19.0
Teleop37.7
End10.7
red by 7.6
188
#21
59.81.3
57.556.2
Auto18.2
Teleop36.0
End5.5
Second
1310
#27
49.71.0
45.744.7
Auto8.3
Teleop32.2
End9.2
red by 17.0
854
#41
32.71.3
26.625.3
Auto4.1
Teleop20.4
End8.2
Third
5885
#30
48.51.0
42.941.9
Auto16.8
Teleop29.9
End1.9
red by 21.2
3756
#48
27.31.3
26.425.1
Auto1.2
Teleop21.6
End4.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
90%Auto oddsEarned54%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
22%Coral oddsMissed12%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
95%Barge oddsEarned68%Barge oddsEarned