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Red206
467881.2
747533.0
447650.2
Blue160
111476.4
906217.4
790231.7
73%Model gave it27%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions183138050100200250300206160

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+46Teleop
+42Endgame
+46Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
9Leave3
7Coral scored#5
35Coral points27
44Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +32
27Coral scored#23
96Coral points82
3Processor algae#2
8Net algae#5
18Processor points12
32Net points20
50Algae points32
146Total teleop114
Reef
10L4#9
12L3#9
9L2#5
3L1 · trough#5
45Game pieces#35
BargeBlue +4
12Cage & park16
12Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +46
4Foul points0
206Total score160

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
81.22.7
76.178.8
Auto25.0
Teleop47.1
End9.1
red by 4.8
1114
#13
76.41.8
75.877.6
Auto18.8
Teleop52.1
End5.6
Second
4476
#14
50.22.7
46.749.4
Auto11.2
Teleop38.3
End0.9
red by 18.5
7902
#10
31.71.8
32.334.1
Auto3.2
Teleop25.1
End3.5
Third
33.02.7
27.730.4
Auto4.8
Teleop27.1
End1.0
red by 15.6
9062
#23
17.41.8
13.215.0
Auto1.1
Teleop15.0
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
96%Auto oddsEarned67%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
78%Coral oddsEarned55%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
37%Barge oddsMissed37%Barge oddsEarned