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Red102
373943.3
808930.9
34059.0
Blue158
999726.1
78150.6
494679.3
41%Model gave it59%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions152174050100200250300350102158

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+14
Teleop+42
Endgame+52
Fouls+56
AutonomousBlue +14
3Leave3
5Coral scored#8
27Coral points41
30Total auto44
TeleoperatedBlue +28
12Coral scored#17
44Coral points60
1Processor algae#1
2Net algae#5
6Processor points6
8Net points20
14Algae points26
58Total teleop86
Reef
7L4#9
4L3#8
3L2#4
3L1 · trough#4
20Game pieces#31
BargeBlue +10
14Cage & park24
14Total endgame24
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +56
0Foul points4
102Total score158

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
340
#4
59.02.5
56.654.2
Auto19.7
Teleop31.7
End7.6
blue by 20.3
79.30.8
79.179.9
Auto19.3
Teleop49.7
End10.3
Second
3739
#19
43.32.5
48.546.1
Auto6.6
Teleop33.8
End2.9
blue by 7.3
781
#11
50.60.8
50.651.4
Auto12.3
Teleop35.5
End2.7
Third
8089
#23
30.92.5
33.931.4
Auto6.0
Teleop19.5
End5.3
red by 4.8
9997
#14
26.11.4
11.913.3
Auto10.1
Teleop14.8
End1.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
95%Auto oddsEarned76%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
81%Coral oddsMissed29%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
84%Barge oddsMissed64%Barge oddsEarned