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Red185
368392.5
467886.9
885017.5
Blue148
132573.1
755859.9
965918.7
86%Model gave it14%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions223155050100200250300185148

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+35Teleop
+25Endgame
+37Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
6Leave9
6Coral scored#5
31Coral points25
37Total auto34
TeleoperatedRed +32
24Coral scored#16
86Coral points56
3Processor algae#2
4Net algae#5
18Processor points12
16Net points20
34Algae points32
120Total teleop88
Reef
14L4#9
9L3#7
4L2#3
3L1 · trough#2
37Game pieces#28
BargeBlue +10
16Cage & park26
16Total endgame26
Penalties & totalRed +37
12Foul points0
185Total score148

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
92.50.6
93.092.5
Auto25.0
Teleop61.3
End6.3
red by 19.4
73.10.0
71.971.9
Auto20.9
Teleop45.0
End7.2
Second
86.90.6
87.486.8
Auto25.9
Teleop51.0
End10.0
red by 27.0
59.90.0
58.758.7
Auto11.8
Teleop37.1
End10.9
Third
8850
#22
17.50.6
18.017.5
Auto2.6
Teleop13.6
End1.3
blue by 1.2
9659
#24
18.70.0
17.517.5
Auto3.1
Teleop15.6
End-0.0