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Red131
752052.8
965916.8
978537.5
Blue97
663220.3
497647.0
356018.8
78%Model gave it22%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions947440608012014016013197

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+13Auto
+32Teleop
+34Endgame
+34Fouls
AutonomousRed +13
3Leave6
6Coral scored#3
30Coral points14
33Total auto20
TeleoperatedRed +19
16Coral scored#13
56Coral points45
3Processor algae#1
3Net algae#4
18Processor points6
12Net points16
30Algae points22
86Total teleop67
Reef
9L4#6
7L3#5
3L2#3
3L1 · trough#2
28Game pieces#21
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +34
6Foul points6
131Total score97

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
52.82.8
46.249.0
Auto15.9
Teleop35.0
End1.9
red by 5.9
47.01.4
39.641.0
Auto14.2
Teleop31.4
End1.4
Second
37.52.8
26.129.0
Auto8.0
Teleop27.6
End1.9
red by 17.2
6632
#25
20.32.1
15.317.3
Auto3.0
Teleop14.5
End2.8
Third
9659
#16
16.82.8
10.413.2
Auto4.5
Teleop11.0
End1.3
blue by 1.9
3560
#28
18.82.4
14.817.1
Auto3.8
Teleop12.3
End2.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
64%Auto oddsEarned67%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
7%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
13%Barge oddsMissed11%Barge oddsMissed