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Red153
1055425.1
808919.1
368380.4
Blue52
571922.3
587020.0
270225.0
59%Model gave it41%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9389608010012014015352

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+31Auto
+99Teleop
+101Endgame
+101Fouls
AutonomousRed +31
9Leave6
6Coral scored#0
28Coral points0
37Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +68
16Coral scored#9
56Coral points32
3Processor algae#1
9Net algae#1
18Processor points6
36Net points4
54Algae points10
110Total teleop42
Reef
8L4#4
5L3#3
5L2#1
4L1 · trough#1
34Game pieces#11
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +101
0Foul points0
153Total score52

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
80.47.2
54.962.1
Auto25.6
Teleop52.8
End2.0
red by 55.4
2702
#27
25.03.8
23.319.5
Auto4.7
Teleop19.8
End0.5
Second
25.17.2
16.223.4
Auto3.9
Teleop20.7
End0.5
red by 2.8
5719
#16
22.33.8
30.827.0
Auto6.3
Teleop14.7
End1.4
Third
8089
#10
19.17.2
11.618.8
Auto5.9
Teleop8.9
End4.2
blue by 0.9
5870
#22
20.03.8
26.222.4
Auto3.9
Teleop16.0
End0.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
56%Auto oddsEarned27%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
19%Coral oddsEarned12%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
12%Barge oddsMissed19%Barge oddsMissed