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Red95
943031.4
644336.0
469232.0
Blue128
247143.9
95760.1
75329.2
4%Model gave it96%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1061555020095128

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+4
Teleop+27
Endgame+39
Fouls+33
AutonomousBlue +4
0Leave3
3Coral scored#3
16Coral points17
16Total auto20
TeleoperatedBlue +23
11Coral scored#18
41Coral points66
2Processor algae#3
4Net algae#2
12Processor points18
16Net points8
28Algae points26
69Total teleop92
Reef
4L4#9
5L3#6
3L2#3
2L1 · trough#3
20Game pieces#26
BargeBlue +12
4Cage & park16
4Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +33
6Foul points0
95Total score128

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6443
#22
36.01.5
37.435.9
Auto6.7
Teleop22.8
End6.6
blue by 24.0
957
#1
60.11.2
62.261.0
Auto17.6
Teleop34.7
End7.8
Second
4692
#24
32.01.5
34.032.5
Auto6.3
Teleop25.2
End0.6
blue by 11.9
43.91.2
43.442.2
Auto7.7
Teleop30.9
End5.3
Third
9430
#15
31.41.5
28.827.3
Auto5.9
Teleop20.8
End4.6
red by 2.2
753
#12
29.21.2
29.228.0
Auto1.3
Teleop20.2
End7.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
85%Auto oddsEarned83%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed15%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
59%Barge oddsMissed90%Barge oddsEarned