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Red180
331471.3
941623.1
260765.4
Blue152
180757.2
43026.8
139153.5
82%Model gave it18%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions173146100120160180200220240180152

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+18Auto
+18Teleop
+30Endgame
+28Fouls
AutonomousRed +18
9Leave3
9Coral scored#7
45Coral points33
54Total auto36
Teleoperatedlevel
16Coral scored#20
58Coral points72
1Processor algae#2
9Net algae#4
6Processor points12
36Net points16
42Algae points28
100Total teleop100
Reef
10L4#9
8L3#9
4L2#4
3L1 · trough#5
35Game pieces#33
BargeRed +12
26Cage & park14
26Total endgame14
Penalties & totalRed +28
0Foul points2
180Total score152

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
71.30.5
70.871.3
Auto18.7
Teleop42.9
End9.7
red by 14.1
57.20.3
56.957.2
Auto12.2
Teleop39.1
End5.8
Second
65.40.5
65.065.4
Auto16.2
Teleop39.7
End9.5
red by 12.0
53.50.3
53.253.5
Auto9.0
Teleop38.0
End6.4
Third
9416
#22
23.10.5
22.723.1
Auto3.3
Teleop14.3
End5.6
blue by 3.7
430
#15
26.80.3
26.526.8
Auto4.7
Teleop18.7
End3.4