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Red201
177891.8
956731.0
1007952.1
Blue190
321857.1
491558.8
944632.8
78%Model gave it22%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions183149100200250201190

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+29Teleop
+11Endgame
+11Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
6Leave3
8Coral scored#8
41Coral points41
47Total auto44
TeleoperatedRed +26
32Coral scored#24
116Coral points88
3Processor algae#2
3Net algae#5
18Processor points12
12Net points20
30Algae points32
146Total teleop120
Reef
20L4#12
8L3#9
9L2#6
3L1 · trough#5
46Game pieces#39
BargeBlue +18
8Cage & park26
8Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +11
0Foul points0
201Total score190

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
91.82.2
85.988.0
Auto21.2
Teleop66.8
End3.9
red by 33.1
4915
#28
58.83.0
54.257.2
Auto14.2
Teleop38.7
End6.0
Second
52.12.2
41.844.0
Auto19.6
Teleop29.4
End3.1
blue by 5.0
3218
#23
57.13.0
48.151.0
Auto13.6
Teleop38.0
End5.4
Third
9567
#21
31.02.2
26.929.1
Auto8.8
Teleop18.3
End4.0
blue by 1.8
9446
#34
32.83.0
29.132.1
Auto5.7
Teleop23.3
End3.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
98%Auto oddsEarned91%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
79%Coral oddsEarned61%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
41%Barge oddsMissed46%Barge oddsEarned