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Red50
910217.5
398640.7
80678.4
Blue94
82249.6
494741.3
399048.7
16%Model gave it84%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6994204060801001201405094

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
Teleop+22
Endgame+44
Fouls+44
AutonomousBlue +7
6Leave0
3Coral scored#6
17Coral points30
23Total auto30
TeleoperatedBlue +15
4Coral scored#8
15Coral points30
0Processor algae#0
2Net algae#2
0Processor points0
8Net points8
8Algae points8
23Total teleop38
Reef
2L4#5
1L3#5
2L2#2
2L1 · trough#2
9Game pieces#16
BargeBlue +22
4Cage & park26
4Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +44
0Foul points0
50Total score94

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
40.71.7
32.831.1
Auto14.9
Teleop21.5
End4.4
blue by 7.9
48.70.9
43.043.9
Auto13.6
Teleop27.2
End7.9
Second
9102
#27
17.51.7
19.718.0
Auto3.5
Teleop11.9
End2.2
blue by 23.8
41.31.4
29.731.1
Auto6.3
Teleop25.5
End9.5
Third
8067
#35
8.41.7
12.911.2
Auto2.8
Teleop3.6
End1.9
blue by 1.3
8224
#29
9.61.4
8.39.8
Auto3.0
Teleop4.3
End2.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
46%Auto oddsEarned45%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
30%Barge oddsMissed80%Barge oddsEarned