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Red127
573522.2
206441.5
34821.5
Blue47
135017.2
174034.7
173520.0
73%Model gave it27%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8776406010012012747

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+8
+18Teleop
+30Endgame
+80Fouls
AutonomousBlue +8
6Leave0
1Coral scored#4
6Coral points20
12Total auto20
TeleoperatedRed +26
10Coral scored#5
37Coral points17
0Processor algae#1
3Net algae#0
0Processor points6
12Net points0
12Algae points6
49Total teleop23
Reef
4L4#3
3L3#3
2L2#2
2L1 · trough#1
14Game pieces#10
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +80
50Foul points0
127Total score47

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
41.50.3
39.939.7
Auto8.0
Teleop25.1
End8.4
red by 6.8
1740
#17
34.72.8
34.832.0
Auto12.7
Teleop18.7
End3.3
Second
5735
#20
22.20.3
24.424.2
Auto3.4
Teleop16.5
End2.3
red by 2.2
1735
#36
20.02.8
17.414.6
Auto3.5
Teleop16.4
End0.1
Third
348
#18
21.50.3
16.416.2
Auto3.1
Teleop15.1
End3.3
red by 4.3
1350
#31
17.22.8
20.217.4
Auto4.1
Teleop11.1
End2.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
34%Auto oddsEarned39%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
14%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
50%Barge oddsEarned31%Barge oddsMissed