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Red173
285426.0
641850.1
604B61.5
Blue168
281353.3
879337.6
741942.1
58%Model gave it42%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions140136100110120130150160170180173168

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+5Auto
+5Teleop
+11Endgame
+5Fouls
AutonomousRed +5
3Leave0
7Coral scored#6
34Coral points32
37Total auto32
Teleoperatedlevel
22Coral scored#23
80Coral points82
2Processor algae#3
5Net algae#3
12Processor points18
20Net points12
32Algae points30
112Total teleop112
Reef
10L4#9
10L3#8
6L2#8
3L1 · trough#4
36Game pieces#35
BargeRed +6
24Cage & park18
24Total endgame18
Penalties & totalRed +5
0Foul points6
173Total score168

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
61.51.0
60.261.2
Auto14.2
Teleop43.6
End3.8
red by 8.3
53.30.7
52.453.1
Auto6.8
Teleop36.6
End9.8
Second
50.10.9
48.949.8
Auto14.8
Teleop28.9
End6.3
red by 8.0
7419
#16
42.10.7
41.241.9
Auto12.2
Teleop29.5
End0.4
Third
2854
#28
26.00.9
24.825.7
Auto4.8
Teleop19.1
End2.1
blue by 11.6
8793
#23
37.60.7
36.737.4
Auto11.1
Teleop22.5
End4.0