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Red125
608328.6
816919.8
763260.7
Blue64
755123.1
763618.1
694728.7
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1297505010015020025012564

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+17Auto
+43Teleop
+53Endgame
+61Fouls
AutonomousRed +17
9Leave3
6Coral scored#4
31Coral points20
40Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +26
13Coral scored#7
45Coral points25
1Processor algae#0
1Net algae#1
6Processor points0
4Net points4
10Algae points4
55Total teleop29
Reef
8L4#4
5L3#3
3L2#2
3L1 · trough#2
21Game pieces#12
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Penalties & totalRed +61
14Foul points6
125Total score64

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
60.70.2
59.059.2
Auto15.1
Teleop38.3
End7.2
red by 32.0
6947
#15
28.70.3
29.629.3
Auto8.5
Teleop15.1
End5.1
Second
6083
#12
28.60.2
26.927.1
Auto7.3
Teleop17.8
End3.5
red by 5.5
23.10.3
24.023.6
Auto4.6
Teleop11.7
End6.8
Third
8169
#28
19.80.2
18.118.3
Auto4.0
Teleop15.7
End0.1
red by 1.7
7636
#29
18.10.3
19.018.7
Auto4.2
Teleop13.4
End0.5