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Red40
643132.1
95919.9
Blue22
1067512.9
824211.6
1046515.7
42%Model gave it58%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions333601020304050604022

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+1Auto
+10Teleop
+6Endgame
+18Fouls
AutonomousRed +1
0Leave6
1Coral scored#0
7Coral points0
7Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +9
5Coral scored#3
17Coral points12
0Processor algae#0
1Net algae#0
0Processor points0
4Net points0
4Algae points0
21Total teleop12
Reef
2L4#1
2L3#1
1L2#0
1L1 · trough#1
7Game pieces#3
BargeBlue +4
0Cage & park4
0Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +18
12Foul points0
40Total score22

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
32.10.5
15.014.5
Auto4.0
Teleop27.3
End0.8
red by 16.3
15.71.2
11.210.0
Auto3.5
Teleop10.3
End1.9
Second
9591
#28
9.90.5
6.66.1
Auto2.6
Teleop6.5
End0.8
blue by 3.0
12.91.2
10.89.5
Auto5.2
Teleop6.6
End1.2
Third
7.10.5
7.77.2
Auto1.6
Teleop4.7
End0.7
blue by 4.5
8242
#39
11.61.2
8.57.3
Auto2.4
Teleop8.1
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
27%Auto oddsEarned45%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
34%Barge oddsMissed35%Barge oddsMissed