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Red68
635722.2
754012.9
510318.9
Blue55
903419.8
174516.2
912110.6
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions625602040801006855

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+7Teleop
+7Endgame
+13Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
6Leave9
1Coral scored#0
6Coral points0
12Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +4
10Coral scored#7
36Coral points24
1Processor algae#1
1Net algae#3
6Processor points6
4Net points12
10Algae points18
46Total teleop42
Reef
3L4#3
5L3#2
2L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
13Game pieces#11
Bargelevel
4Cage & park4
4Total endgame4
Penalties & totalRed +13
6Foul points0
68Total score55

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6357
#23
22.20.1
21.921.8
Auto3.4
Teleop16.9
End1.9
red by 2.4
9034
#17
19.80.0
19.919.8
Auto3.3
Teleop15.6
End1.0
Second
5103
#16
18.90.1
18.518.5
Auto3.8
Teleop13.0
End2.0
red by 2.7
16.20.0
16.216.2
Auto2.8
Teleop11.8
End1.5
Third
7540
#12
12.90.1
12.512.5
Auto3.7
Teleop7.5
End1.6
red by 2.3
9121
#19
10.60.0
10.710.6
Auto3.3
Teleop5.5
End1.8