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Red135
356131.9
887428.5
635748.1
Blue133
589253.9
912113.6
258352.2
32%Model gave it68%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10011850150200135133

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+8
Teleop+22
Endgame+22
+2Fouls
AutonomousBlue +8
0Leave9
4Coral scored#4
22Coral points21
22Total auto30
TeleoperatedBlue +14
11Coral scored#16
41Coral points59
2Processor algae#2
5Net algae#4
12Processor points12
20Net points16
32Algae points28
73Total teleop87
Reef
6L4#7
4L3#8
3L2#3
2L1 · trough#2
22Game pieces#26
Bargelevel
16Cage & park16
16Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +2
24Foul points0
135Total score133

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6357
#14
48.11.2
33.935.1
Auto7.1
Teleop34.6
End6.4
blue by 5.8
5892
#17
53.91.6
54.556.1
Auto15.4
Teleop34.5
End4.0
Second
3561
#30
31.91.2
31.132.3
Auto5.3
Teleop24.4
End2.2
blue by 20.3
2583
#23
52.21.6
45.847.5
Auto12.4
Teleop38.7
End1.2
Third
8874
#37
28.51.2
28.029.2
Auto5.6
Teleop21.3
End1.5
red by 14.9
9121
#44
13.61.6
8.29.8
Auto5.6
Teleop6.0
End1.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
45%Auto oddsEarned88%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
10%Coral oddsMissed11%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
31%Barge oddsEarned31%Barge oddsEarned