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Red131
941840.0
912851.1
406334.5
Blue150
712153.8
749252.2
769123.4
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions143128050100200250131150

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
Teleop+39
Endgame+27
Fouls+19
AutonomousBlue +7
0Leave3
6Coral scored#7
30Coral points34
30Total auto37
TeleoperatedBlue +32
15Coral scored#19
55Coral points69
2Processor algae#3
3Net algae#6
12Processor points18
12Net points24
24Algae points42
79Total teleop111
Reef
9L4#10
6L3#5
2L2#6
4L1 · trough#5
26Game pieces#35
BargeRed +12
14Cage & park2
14Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +19
8Foul points0
131Total score150

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9128
#18
51.10.4
53.052.6
Auto11.5
Teleop32.6
End7.1
blue by 2.7
7121
#13
53.81.9
46.748.6
Auto16.0
Teleop36.4
End1.5
Second
9418
#11
40.00.4
40.840.4
Auto7.1
Teleop27.6
End5.2
blue by 12.2
7492
#15
52.21.9
49.251.1
Auto12.3
Teleop38.0
End1.9
Third
4063
#25
34.50.4
35.835.4
Auto5.0
Teleop26.9
End2.5
red by 11.1
7691
#43
23.41.9
25.627.5
Auto3.7
Teleop19.0
End0.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
91%Auto oddsEarned97%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
23%Coral oddsMissed17%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
88%Barge oddsEarned12%Barge oddsMissed