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Red171
147761.3
258542.6
1001453.1
Blue156
749252.2
471718.8
541164.4
72%Model gave it28%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions172148100200250171156

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+1Auto
+11Teleop
+23Endgame
+15Fouls
AutonomousRed +1
0Leave6
8Coral scored#7
41Coral points34
41Total auto40
TeleoperatedRed +10
21Coral scored#21
76Coral points76
2Processor algae#1
4Net algae#3
12Processor points6
16Net points12
28Algae points18
104Total teleop94
Reef
13L4#9
5L3#8
6L2#5
5L1 · trough#6
35Game pieces#32
BargeRed +12
26Cage & park14
26Total endgame14
Penalties & totalRed +15
0Foul points8
171Total score156

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1477
#12
61.30.3
60.961.2
Auto12.1
Teleop41.7
End7.4
blue by 3.1
5411
#10
64.40.2
65.265.4
Auto15.1
Teleop39.1
End10.2
Second
53.10.3
52.853.1
Auto8.8
Teleop40.7
End3.6
red by 1.0
7492
#15
52.20.2
53.053.2
Auto12.3
Teleop38.0
End1.9
Third
2585
#20
42.60.3
42.442.7
Auto8.4
Teleop26.3
End7.9
red by 23.8
4717
#32
18.80.2
19.619.8
Auto5.0
Teleop11.7
End2.0