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Red53
712512.7
709110.7
420629.6
Blue51
850716.5
876919.4
541717.4
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions615401001502002503003504005351

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
Teleop+10
Endgame+10
+2Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
6Leave9
1Coral scored#0
6Coral points0
12Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +13
4Coral scored#7
15Coral points24
0Processor algae#0
2Net algae#3
0Processor points0
8Net points12
8Algae points12
23Total teleop36
Reef
2L4#3
1L3#1
1L2#2
1L1 · trough#1
7Game pieces#10
Bargelevel
6Cage & park6
6Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +2
12Foul points0
53Total score51

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4206
#18
29.60.8
28.828.0
Auto6.7
Teleop21.0
End1.8
red by 10.2
8769
#31
19.40.2
17.617.4
Auto3.5
Teleop14.7
End1.2
Second
7125
#19
12.70.8
14.113.3
Auto3.8
Teleop7.3
End1.6
blue by 4.8
5417
#12
17.40.2
16.216.0
Auto3.2
Teleop11.1
End3.2
Third
7091
#21
10.70.8
9.58.8
Auto3.8
Teleop4.8
End2.2
blue by 5.8
8507
#34
16.50.2
16.916.7
Auto2.6
Teleop9.9
End4.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
76%Auto oddsEarned29%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
2%Barge oddsEarned8%Barge oddsMissed