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Red77
174518.4
367626.2
420629.6
Blue189
690112.0
33558.0
712512.7
95%Model gave it5%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions732105010015077189

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+58Teleop
+58Endgame
Fouls+112
AutonomousRed +3
0Leave9
2Coral scored#0
12Coral points0
12Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +55
10Coral scored#0
37Coral points0
1Processor algae#0
3Net algae#0
6Processor points0
12Net points0
18Algae points0
55Total teleop0
Reef
4L4#0
3L3#0
2L2#0
3L1 · trough#0
16Game pieces#0
Bargelevel
4Cage & park4
4Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +112
6Foul points176
77Total score189

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4206
#18
29.60.8
21.322.1
Auto6.7
Teleop21.0
End1.8
red by 16.9
7125
#19
12.70.7
9.58.8
Auto3.8
Teleop7.3
End1.6
Second
3676
#15
26.21.3
20.421.8
Auto4.7
Teleop15.8
End5.8
red by 14.2
6901
#10
12.00.7
7.46.7
Auto3.8
Teleop5.5
End2.6
Third
1745
#25
18.40.8
17.218.0
Auto3.1
Teleop14.2
End1.1
red by 10.4
3355
#30
8.00.7
6.65.9
Auto4.2
Teleop2.5
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
61%Auto oddsEarned33%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
30%Barge oddsMissed15%Barge oddsMissed