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Red150
118104.8
543135.7
637733.6
Blue114
541437.9
271843.8
914060.8
74%Model gave it26%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions201155050100250300150114

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+11
+34Teleop
+38Endgame
+36Fouls
AutonomousBlue +11
0Leave0
5Coral scored#7
26Coral points37
26Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +45
19Coral scored#14
70Coral points49
3Processor algae#1
5Net algae#2
18Processor points6
20Net points8
38Algae points14
108Total teleop63
Reef
10L4#9
6L3#6
4L2#4
4L1 · trough#2
32Game pieces#24
BargeRed +4
16Cage & park12
16Total endgame12
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +36
0Foul points2
150Total score114

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
118
#1
104.81.6
101.7100.1
Auto21.6
Teleop72.6
End10.7
red by 44.0
9140
#31
60.82.3
58.356.0
Auto14.4
Teleop41.7
End4.7
Second
5431
#23
35.71.6
38.436.8
Auto4.4
Teleop28.8
End2.4
blue by 8.2
2718
#10
43.82.3
42.239.9
Auto12.4
Teleop26.7
End4.7
Third
6377
#30
33.61.6
33.832.2
Auto5.8
Teleop27.3
End0.4
blue by 4.3
5414
#27
37.92.3
45.643.3
Auto9.3
Teleop27.5
End1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
98%Auto oddsEarned92%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
99%Coral oddsEarned7%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
90%Barge oddsEarned51%Barge oddsMissed