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Red121
541145.4
331039.1
652614.2
Blue78
910547.0
33557.6
1001421.9
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions86550204010012014012178

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+13Auto
+35Teleop
+45Endgame
+43Fouls
AutonomousRed +13
3Leave6
5Coral scored#1
23Coral points7
26Total auto13
TeleoperatedRed +22
18Coral scored#10
65Coral points37
2Processor algae#1
1Net algae#4
12Processor points6
4Net points16
16Algae points22
81Total teleop59
Reef
6L4#5
8L3#3
6L2#2
3L1 · trough#1
26Game pieces#16
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +43
0Foul points2
121Total score78

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
45.44.9
32.437.2
Auto10.4
Teleop27.1
End7.9
blue by 1.6
47.02.3
36.338.6
Auto10.5
Teleop31.3
End5.2
Second
39.12.9
30.032.9
Auto10.1
Teleop22.1
End6.8
red by 17.2
21.92.3
15.217.5
Auto1.9
Teleop18.1
End2.0
Third
6526
#21
14.22.9
15.017.9
Auto3.3
Teleop10.0
End0.9
red by 6.6
3355
#27
7.62.3
4.06.3
Auto2.8
Teleop3.0
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
47%Auto oddsEarned52%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
44%Barge oddsEarned17%Barge oddsMissed