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Red99
258330.3
873216.7
268933.3
Blue62
637739.0
905417.0
1031211.0
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions775720401001201409962

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+11Teleop
+23Endgame
+37Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
6Leave3
3Coral scored#1
13Coral points6
19Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +1
10Coral scored#11
36Coral points41
1Processor algae#0
2Net algae#2
6Processor points0
8Net points8
14Algae points8
50Total teleop49
Reef
4L4#5
4L3#3
3L2#2
2L1 · trough#2
16Game pieces#14
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +37
14Foul points0
99Total score62

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
33.31.6
29.831.4
Auto5.9
Teleop20.3
End7.2
blue by 5.7
39.00.8
30.931.7
Auto6.2
Teleop30.6
End2.2
Second
2583
#11
30.31.7
26.728.4
Auto7.0
Teleop22.2
End1.2
red by 13.3
9054
#26
17.00.8
11.011.8
Auto4.0
Teleop11.0
End2.1
Third
8732
#38
16.71.7
11.813.5
Auto4.1
Teleop9.6
End3.0
red by 5.7
11.00.7
12.613.3
Auto3.4
Teleop5.3
End2.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
47%Auto oddsEarned54%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
49%Barge oddsEarned61%Barge oddsMissed