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Red135
210661.9
159923.5
533840.9
Blue15
44941.0
138911.5
218617.3
85%Model gave it15%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions14910205020013515

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+24Auto
+102Teleop
+112Endgame
+120Fouls
AutonomousRed +24
6Leave6
5Coral scored#0
24Coral points0
30Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +78
14Coral scored#1
49Coral points5
3Processor algae#0
4Net algae#0
18Processor points0
16Net points0
34Algae points0
83Total teleop5
Reef
7L4#0
7L3#1
3L2#0
2L1 · trough#0
26Game pieces#1
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +120
8Foul points0
135Total score15

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2106
#1Sur
61.90.5
62.862.3
Auto16.9
Teleop37.1
End7.8
red by 20.9
449
#23Sur
41.05.4
51.846.4
Auto7.0
Teleop27.9
End6.1
Second
5338
#12
40.90.5
42.642.1
Auto9.3
Teleop31.3
End0.5
red by 23.6
2186
#19
17.35.4
19.614.2
Auto5.9
Teleop2.9
End8.5
Third
1599
#25
23.50.5
29.328.7
Auto3.6
Teleop15.6
End4.2
red by 11.9
1389
#21
11.55.4
24.619.2
Auto4.6
Teleop5.0
End1.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
95%Auto oddsEarned83%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
13%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
89%Barge oddsEarned84%Barge oddsMissed