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Red41
40131.9
99996.4
99700.4
Blue29
1000411.0
580433.7
99714.3
29%Model gave it71%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions53730204060801001204129

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+6Teleop
+6Endgame
+12Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
3Leave3
1Coral scored#0
7Coral points0
10Total auto3
TeleoperatedBlue +1
4Coral scored#4
13Coral points16
0Processor algae#1
2Net algae#0
0Processor points6
8Net points0
8Algae points6
21Total teleop22
Reef
2L4#2
1L3#1
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#0
7Game pieces#5
Bargelevel
4Cage & park4
4Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +12
6Foul points0
41Total score29

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
401
#3
31.90.9
43.042.1
Auto9.4
Teleop18.6
End3.6
blue by 1.9
5804
#18
33.72.6
54.451.8
Auto5.3
Teleop21.8
End6.4
Second
9999
#15
6.41.5
3.92.3
Auto-0.3
Teleop6.5
End0.2
blue by 4.6
11.02.6
7.24.6
Auto6.0
Teleop3.3
End1.5
Third
0.41.5
1.70.2
Auto-3.0
Teleop4.1
End-0.2
blue by 3.9
9971
#10
4.34.3
6.32.0
Auto-1.5
Teleop6.7
End-0.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
24%Auto oddsMissed52%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
9%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
23%Barge oddsMissed54%Barge oddsMissed