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Red83
457224.4
910138.9
226225.6
Blue85
34825.4
1006626.0
172947.7
20%Model gave it80%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions771042040601201401601808385

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+2
Endgame+2
Fouls+2
AutonomousBlue +3
0Leave3
2Coral scored#2
12Coral points12
12Total auto15
TeleoperatedRed +1
13Coral scored#14
45Coral points50
2Processor algae#1
2Net algae#2
12Processor points6
8Net points8
20Algae points14
65Total teleop64
Reef
7L4#6
3L3#4
2L2#4
3L1 · trough#2
19Game pieces#19
Bargelevel
6Cage & park6
6Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +2
0Foul points0
83Total score85

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9101
#20
38.90.8
34.435.2
Auto5.3
Teleop32.2
End1.4
blue by 8.8
1729
#13
47.70.3
42.241.9
Auto10.6
Teleop32.5
End4.6
Second
2262
#29
25.60.8
22.122.8
Auto5.1
Teleop17.5
End2.9
blue by 0.4
26.00.3
24.324.0
Auto7.7
Teleop17.7
End0.7
Third
4572
#15
24.40.8
15.215.9
Auto8.5
Teleop13.2
End2.7
blue by 1.0
348
#26
25.40.3
23.322.9
Auto4.1
Teleop19.0
End2.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
61%Auto oddsEarned81%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
15%Coral oddsMissed30%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
28%Barge oddsMissed69%Barge oddsMissed