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Qual 622025 NE District UVM Event
Red70
549422.7
252326.7
457224.4
Blue139
151220.2
83956.5
909622.3
32%Model gave it68%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions821025015020070139

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
Teleop+51
Endgame+73
Fouls+69
AutonomousBlue +7
6Leave0
2Coral scored#5
10Coral points23
16Total auto23
TeleoperatedBlue +44
9Coral scored#17
32Coral points62
1Processor algae#2
2Net algae#4
6Processor points12
8Net points16
14Algae points28
46Total teleop90
Reef
3L4#9
4L3#7
3L2#3
1L1 · trough#3
14Game pieces#28
BargeBlue +22
4Cage & park26
4Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +69
4Foul points0
70Total score139

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2523
#19
26.70.8
27.5→26.6
Auto5.3
Teleop19.6
End1.8
blue by 29.8
839
#3
56.53.0
51.6→54.6
Auto10.3
Teleop36.3
End10.0
Second
4572
#15
24.40.8
22.9→22.1
Auto8.5
Teleop13.2
End2.7
red by 2.1
9096
#21
22.33.0
19.2→22.2
Auto2.9
Teleop16.9
End2.5
Third
5494
#30
22.70.8
22.8→22.0
Auto4.6
Teleop15.7
End2.5
red by 2.5
1512
#22
20.23.0
17.2→20.2
Auto4.0
Teleop11.7
End4.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
78%Auto oddsEarned42%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
10%Coral oddsMissed22%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
28%Barge oddsMissed73%Barge oddsEarned