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Red219
291098.5
321845.3
366377.3
Blue196
639033.6
945076.9
902372.1
83%Model gave it17%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions256202100150300350219196

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+24Auto
+11Teleop
+23Endgame
+23Fouls
AutonomousRed +24
9Leave9
10Coral scored#6
52Coral points28
61Total auto37
TeleoperatedBlue +13
30Coral scored#31
108Coral points111
2Processor algae#3
3Net algae#4
12Processor points18
12Net points16
24Algae points34
132Total teleop145
Reef
15L4#16
11L3#11
8L2#6
6L1 · trough#4
45Game pieces#44
BargeRed +12
26Cage & park14
26Total endgame14
Penalties & totalRed +23
0Foul points0
219Total score196

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
98.50.0
98.498.4
Auto27.9
Teleop61.9
End8.8
red by 21.6
76.90.3
76.476.7
Auto15.0
Teleop52.2
End9.8
Second
77.30.0
77.277.1
Auto17.4
Teleop49.2
End10.7
red by 5.1
72.10.3
71.671.9
Auto13.2
Teleop56.8
End2.2
Third
3218
#18
45.30.0
45.245.1
Auto12.0
Teleop30.6
End2.7
red by 11.7
6390
#22
33.60.3
33.033.3
Auto8.3
Teleop24.8
End0.4