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Red126
945076.9
241257.5
368137.7
Blue114
292812.2
212262.9
639033.6
97%Model gave it3%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions198102050150250300126114

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+21
+6Teleop
+16Endgame
+12Fouls
AutonomousBlue +21
9Leave3
0Coral scored#5
0Coral points27
9Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +27
16Coral scored#13
57Coral points48
2Processor algae#1
5Net algae#2
12Processor points6
20Net points8
32Algae points14
89Total teleop62
Reef
5L4#6
6L3#4
4L2#4
1L1 · trough#4
23Game pieces#21
BargeRed +10
26Cage & park16
26Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +12
2Foul points6
126Total score114

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
76.93.2
74.371.1
Auto15.0
Teleop52.2
End9.8
red by 14.0
62.90.1
59.159.2
Auto16.0
Teleop36.7
End10.2
Second
57.53.2
54.851.6
Auto12.9
Teleop34.6
End10.1
red by 24.0
6390
#22
33.60.1
27.928.0
Auto8.3
Teleop24.8
End0.4
Third
3681
#13
37.73.2
35.231.9
Auto7.2
Teleop22.7
End7.8
red by 25.5
2928
#35
12.20.1
11.411.5
Auto0.5
Teleop11.3
End0.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
95%Auto oddsMissed80%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
70%Coral oddsMissed20%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
93%Barge oddsEarned56%Barge oddsEarned