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Red144
491553.1
558813.2
451256.4
Blue158
446948.5
357429.8
204651.4
45%Model gave it55%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions128142050100200250300350400144158

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
Teleop+8
Endgame+10
Fouls+14
Autonomouslevel
3Leave9
8Coral scored#7
41Coral points35
44Total auto44
TeleoperatedBlue +8
19Coral scored#17
70Coral points60
2Processor algae#3
3Net algae#6
12Processor points18
12Net points24
24Algae points42
94Total teleop102
Reef
14L4#9
8L3#5
3L2#6
2L1 · trough#4
32Game pieces#33
BargeBlue +2
4Cage & park6
4Total endgame6
Penalties & totalBlue +14
2Foul points6
144Total score158

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
56.40.5
55.956.4
Auto18.1
Teleop37.4
End0.9
red by 5.0
51.40.5
50.851.4
Auto14.2
Teleop35.2
End1.9
Second
53.10.5
52.653.1
Auto15.8
Teleop30.0
End7.3
red by 4.6
4469
#13
48.50.5
48.048.5
Auto12.8
Teleop34.6
End1.1
Third
5588
#24
13.20.5
12.713.2
Auto6.7
Teleop6.3
End0.2
blue by 16.6
3574
#15
29.80.5
29.329.8
Auto3.6
Teleop22.3
End3.9