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Red180
446948.5
357429.8
204651.4
Blue139
291087.2
321917.4
241261.8
20%Model gave it80%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions131196050100150250300350180139

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+55Teleop
+41Endgame
+41Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
6Leave0
7Coral scored#6
34Coral points30
40Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +45
26Coral scored#14
94Coral points51
3Processor algae#2
4Net algae#5
18Processor points12
16Net points20
34Algae points32
128Total teleop83
Reef
14L4#8
7L3#6
7L2#3
5L1 · trough#3
40Game pieces#27
BargeBlue +14
12Cage & park26
12Total endgame26
Penalties & totalRed +41
0Foul points0
180Total score139

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
51.41.0
49.050.0
Auto14.2
Teleop35.2
End1.9
blue by 35.8
87.20.9
88.187.2
Auto22.8
Teleop56.1
End8.2
Second
4469
#13
48.51.0
46.247.2
Auto12.8
Teleop34.6
End1.1
blue by 13.3
61.80.9
62.861.8
Auto13.1
Teleop38.0
End10.8
Third
3574
#15
29.81.0
27.428.5
Auto3.6
Teleop22.3
End3.9
red by 12.4
3219
#21
17.40.9
18.317.4
Auto5.3
Teleop8.4
End3.6