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Red117
491553.1
558813.2
451256.4
Blue104
593738.7
198326.4
805127.3
73%Model gave it27%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12391050150200117104

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+24Auto
+19Teleop
+19Endgame
+13Fouls
AutonomousRed +24
0Leave3
8Coral scored#3
40Coral points13
40Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +5
14Coral scored#14
51Coral points52
2Processor algae#2
3Net algae#4
12Processor points12
12Net points16
24Algae points28
75Total teleop80
Reef
9L4#7
6L3#6
5L2#2
2L1 · trough#2
27Game pieces#23
Bargelevel
2Cage & park2
2Total endgame2
Penalties & totalRed +13
0Foul points6
117Total score104

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
56.40.1
52.852.9
Auto18.1
Teleop37.4
End0.9
red by 17.6
5937
#16
38.70.2
38.338.4
Auto2.0
Teleop31.9
End4.9
Second
53.10.1
49.549.7
Auto15.8
Teleop30.0
End7.3
red by 25.8
8051
#10
27.30.2
26.927.0
Auto7.9
Teleop14.8
End4.6
Third
5588
#24
13.20.1
9.69.7
Auto6.7
Teleop6.3
End0.2
blue by 13.2
1983
#25
26.40.2
25.926.1
Auto5.1
Teleop22.4
End-1.1