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Red122
448827.8
999320.5
367468.7
Blue105
469228.1
154034.6
999427.6
77%Model gave it23%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions138105050150200122105

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+28Auto
+23Teleop
+25Endgame
+17Fouls
AutonomousRed +28
6Leave3
6Coral scored#1
31Coral points6
37Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +5
14Coral scored#14
51Coral points52
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#4
6Processor points6
12Net points16
18Algae points22
69Total teleop74
Reef
7L4#6
7L3#4
4L2#2
2L1 · trough#3
24Game pieces#20
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +17
0Foul points8
122Total score105

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
68.71.5
70.969.4
Auto18.5
Teleop39.9
End10.3
red by 34.1
1540
#14
34.60.1
41.941.8
Auto4.2
Teleop24.7
End5.7
Second
4488
#11Sur
27.81.5
34.432.8
Auto7.1
Teleop18.2
End2.5
blue by 0.3
4692
#21Sur
28.10.1
33.333.2
Auto7.3
Teleop20.1
End0.7
Third
9993
#12
20.52.5
25.222.7
Auto4.0
Teleop13.7
End2.9
blue by 7.1
9994
#17
27.60.2
9.79.5
Auto2.4
Teleop20.9
End4.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
68%Auto oddsEarned76%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
9%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
73%Barge oddsEarned22%Barge oddsEarned