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Red118
945065.6
592038.0
412521.6
Blue104
646535.2
498027.8
469226.8
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions97580204080120140160118104

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+10Teleop
+12Endgame
+14Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
3Leave6
4Coral scored#1
20Coral points3
23Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +4
18Coral scored#17
63Coral points61
1Processor algae#2
2Net algae#2
6Processor points12
8Net points8
14Algae points20
77Total teleop81
Reef
8L4#6
6L3#5
5L2#4
3L1 · trough#3
25Game pieces#22
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +14
2Foul points0
118Total score104

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
65.61.6
53.154.7
Auto17.7
Teleop38.0
End9.8
red by 30.3
6465
#15
35.22.5
22.224.8
Auto5.2
Teleop26.5
End3.6
Second
38.01.6
21.422.9
Auto5.7
Teleop31.1
End1.2
red by 10.2
4980
#22
27.82.5
18.220.8
Auto4.7
Teleop18.9
End4.3
Third
4125
#28
21.61.6
12.714.2
Auto4.0
Teleop16.9
End0.6
blue by 5.2
4692
#30
26.82.5
19.722.3
Auto2.6
Teleop22.6
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
58%Auto oddsEarned30%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
9%Coral oddsEarned3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
74%Barge oddsEarned14%Barge oddsEarned