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Red81
17165.7
99915.3
283040.4
Blue83
99936.8
361828.7
957823.5
44%Model gave it56%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions364502060801001201401608183

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
Teleop+16
Endgame+8
Fouls+2
AutonomousRed +3
6Leave3
2Coral scored#2
10Coral points10
16Total auto13
TeleoperatedBlue +19
10Coral scored#14
37Coral points52
1Processor algae#1
1Net algae#2
6Processor points6
4Net points8
10Algae points14
47Total teleop66
Reef
5L4#5
3L3#5
2L2#4
2L1 · trough#2
14Game pieces#19
BargeRed +8
12Cage & park4
12Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +2
6Foul points0
81Total score83

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
40.41.9
33.135.0
Auto8.8
Teleop24.1
End7.4
red by 11.7
28.71.7
20.021.7
Auto6.3
Teleop21.3
End1.1
Second
1716
#16
5.71.9
0.42.3
Auto1.2
Teleop3.4
End1.1
blue by 17.7
9578
#12
23.51.7
22.324.0
Auto3.5
Teleop18.6
End1.3
Third
9991
#17
5.31.9
-2.6-0.7
Auto1.4
Teleop3.1
End0.8
blue by 1.5
6.81.7
-2.6-0.9
Auto2.1
Teleop3.4
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
46%Auto oddsEarned76%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed2%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
34%Barge oddsMissed16%Barge oddsMissed