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Red100
870135.6
469324.2
109119.5
Blue103
229038.7
93034.5
206224.1
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8398050150100103

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+21
Teleop+9
+7Endgame
Fouls+3
AutonomousBlue +21
6Leave0
1Coral scored#7
7Coral points34
13Total auto34
TeleoperatedRed +12
14Coral scored#11
51Coral points39
1Processor algae#1
2Net algae#2
6Processor points6
8Net points8
14Algae points14
65Total teleop53
Reef
5L4#5
3L3#5
4L2#5
3L1 · trough#3
18Game pieces#21
BargeRed +16
16Cage & park0
16Total endgame0
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +3
6Foul points16
100Total score103

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
8701
#13
35.61.2
33.835.0
Auto5.5
Teleop24.5
End5.6
blue by 3.1
2290
#12
38.70.0
34.534.5
Auto10.9
Teleop27.5
End0.3
Second
4693
#32
24.21.2
24.125.3
Auto4.4
Teleop17.7
End2.1
blue by 10.3
930
#22
34.50.0
31.631.5
Auto10.7
Teleop19.1
End4.7
Third
1091
#26
19.51.2
18.419.5
Auto2.5
Teleop14.3
End2.7
blue by 4.6
2062
#34
24.10.0
21.021.0
Auto5.4
Teleop17.5
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
68%Auto oddsMissed74%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
37%Barge oddsEarned26%Barge oddsMissed