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Red200
638136.7
173279.2
478662.4
Blue115
874451.6
283032.7
179246.3
92%Model gave it8%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions19913050100150250300200115

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+69Teleop
+79Endgame
+85Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
9Leave6
7Coral scored#3
35Coral points17
44Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +48
21Coral scored#17
76Coral points62
4Processor algae#3
9Net algae#2
24Processor points18
36Net points8
60Algae points26
136Total teleop88
Reef
11L4#8
8L3#4
4L2#6
5L1 · trough#2
41Game pieces#25
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Penalties & totalRed +85
6Foul points0
200Total score115

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
79.20.4
78.879.2
Auto16.9
Teleop50.8
End11.5
red by 27.6
8744
#20
51.60.4
52.051.6
Auto10.0
Teleop38.9
End2.8
Second
62.40.4
62.062.4
Auto17.3
Teleop43.4
End1.7
red by 16.0
46.30.4
46.746.3
Auto9.4
Teleop30.1
End6.8
Third
6381
#31
36.70.4
36.336.7
Auto6.3
Teleop24.3
End6.1
red by 4.0
2830
#15
32.70.4
33.032.7
Auto5.7
Teleop22.4
End4.6