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Red64
998626.9
999524.7
958710.4
Blue74
453726.6
999214.3
587613.7
77%Model gave it23%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions884901001502006474

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+1
+2Teleop
Endgame+4
Fouls+10
AutonomousBlue +1
3Leave0
2Coral scored#3
9Coral points13
12Total auto13
TeleoperatedRed +3
8Coral scored#6
28Coral points21
1Processor algae#1
1Net algae#2
6Processor points6
4Net points8
10Algae points14
38Total teleop35
Reef
4L4#4
3L3#1
1L2#2
2L1 · trough#2
12Game pieces#12
BargeBlue +6
14Cage & park20
14Total endgame20
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +10
0Foul points6
64Total score74

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
26.90.2
26.827.0
Auto4.7
Teleop21.3
End0.8
red by 0.3
26.61.0
28.029.0
Auto5.6
Teleop12.3
End8.8
Second
24.70.2
24.624.8
Auto5.7
Teleop12.7
End6.3
red by 10.4
9992
#19
14.31.0
12.413.4
Auto4.8
Teleop7.2
End2.3
Third
9587
#26
10.40.2
9.79.9
Auto2.5
Teleop6.1
End1.8
blue by 3.3
5876
#21
13.71.0
12.113.2
Auto1.9
Teleop8.3
End3.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
70%Auto oddsEarned63%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
72%Barge oddsEarned60%Barge oddsEarned